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Pros predict modest recovery in real estate sector by 2020

The hope of total recovery for Nigerian real estate in 2020 might not be in sight, as industry experts have predicted that there won’t be a guaranteed rapid growth in the property market.

Instead, they anticipate a combination of heightened uncertainty, as financial issues globally get tighter, but a brighter day for increase access to housing for the lower echelon of the Nigerian population, if certain reforms are implemented.

According to them, the 2019 lack of liquidity in the market made the industry to underperform in terms of returns, especially for the high-income property market.

Asides the absence of liquidity in the market, the myriad of challenges bedeviling the sector including, high cost of land registration and titling, policy and licensing issues, risk-sharing mechanism, lack of adequate credit database, knowledge gaps, lack of favorable contract enforcement mechanism, cost of construction, high skilled labor costs, and costs associated with poor infrastructures, have continued to worsen the woes of the industry.

Major impediments to adequate housing provision in Nigeria have remained the mortgage rates. Findings revealed that typical mortgage interest rates in Nigeria range from five to 10 percent for Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) and 15 to 25 percent for commercial mortgage institutions, making it one of the highest in the world.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the real estate sector displaced the Public Administration sector, which reported a contraction of 14.21 percent in the first quarter of 2019.

With a housing deficit of over 18 million units, the real estate sector’s GDP growth in the second quarter 2019 is –4.78 percentage points lower, compared to the 0.93 percent it reported in Q1 2019, but is higher than the -3.88 percent recorded in second-quarter 2018.

Also, the sector continued in its low ebb in the third quarter as it contracted by -2.31per cent, from -3.84per cent recorded in second-quarter 2019, and -2.68 percent in the third quarter of 2018. The industry emerged the sector with the worst growth in Q2

Already, some economists have said the 2020 macroeconomic expectations would most likely center on a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 2.35per cent to 2.42per cent, an inflation rate of 12.32per cent, the external reserve of about $41.44 billion and crude oil price at the rate of $59.2bbl. Others, according to an economist, Dr. Biodun Adedipe, would include an exchange rate of N306 and N364/per dollar, diesel price of N205, and interest rate of a lower double-digit.

Adedipe and a professor of Economics from the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Muhammed Usman have also maintained that the Nigeria economic performance for the 2020 would also be dictated by major occurrences in the global space particularly the trade war between the United States of America and China, rising protectionism with regards to, ‘America first’, ‘No-deal Brexit’ and xenophobia in South Africa, Ghana and Togo, which might impact on diaspora remittance and investment in real estate.

Out of the N2.14 trillion proposed capital expenditure for the 2020 budget, works and housing have the highest capital allocation of 12 percent. While construction and rehabilitation of roads would consume a budget size of N210billion, the federal government national housing and social housing scheme (Family homes fund) will gulp an estimated N17.5 billion and N30 billion respectively.

Although experts say the budget was a step in the right direction but expressed concerns on the nation’s consistent history of lack of funding and poor implementation of the budget

A past president, International Real Estate Federation, (FIABCI) Nigeria, Chief Kola Akomolede said the performance of the sector in the outgoing hasn’t been impressive but better than 2018. He said the contribution of the real estate is not as encouraging as it supposes to be.

Akomolede said the economy is down and money is not available as it used to be stressing that even those who have money were not free to spend it anyhow because of legal issues.
“It’s good for the economy in the long run because of the way we were going before the new regime, it would have gotten to a point where the whole system may collapse. You could imagine a situation where people were renting three-bedroom flats in Ikoyi at $300,000 yearly as rent. You don’t even get that in New York City. It was overpriced because there was money in the hand of people and money they didn’t work for.”

He said in the outgoing year, there was a little boom in the lower echelon residential property, as people were either buying houses for their own occupation through a mortgage or pay for it within a range that is below N50 million.

The property market, he said is going to improve in the year 2020 ‘but we don’t expect any rapid change. It’s not going to happen because all the indicators have not changed and there is no sign that they are going to change. The clampdown on corruption and financial issues would get tighter’.

“But for the lower level, the federal government has directed that to obtain mortgages for houses, for a certain amount below N5 million, you don’t need a percentage deposit. This might increase access to housing for lower echelons of people and that will increase to the facility and increase demand for housing and developers will divert to building houses that are within the range in the new year”, he stated.

Immediate past president of the Nigerian Institute of Building (NIOB), Kenneth Nduka said there would continue to be increasing demand for residential spaces in 2020 because the Nigerian population will continue to increase and the housing deficit would also increase.

“The majority of people who build houses in Abuja couldn’t sell in the outgoing year and so you have a lot of vacant houses scattered around Abuja and other places. So there is great uncertainty as regards rapid growth in real estate next year. Most estate surveyors would tell you that their members are not doing well because most of their clients owe them. Because of the economic climate, we are in a state of persuading occupants to pay”

No doubt the disposable income of most Nigerians has been relatively low coupled with the fact that the government’s interventions in housing were also low, thus impacted negatively on real estate’s performance in 2019.

A past president of the Nigerian Institute of Architects (NIA), Tonye Braide lamented that private real estate development in certain major cities in 2019, was low even though demands for housing continue to rise.

“Many people who had access to capital were building but the rate of returns has dropped. The boom in which people used to buy off-plan has dropped in Abuja. In Port Harcourt, there is still a lot of real estate boom, same in Lagos, Akwa Ibom. In civil servants city like, Calabar is been a little bit slow. Despite the fact that a lot of building materials gone up, the actual prices of houses haven’t gone too high because contractors and developers have to reduce their margin to be able to sale.

He said, “There is hope that things would pick up because the government has also increased the lending/deposit ratio as a result of that bank will have to put in more money into the real estate sector. Real estate is an area that banks could feel safe because they could practically see the money and monitor. Some state governments have been very lazy in issuing titles and without appropriate title, you will not gain access to necessary finance.

Braide said for rapid transformation to take place in the sector in 2020, the process by which banks could recover loan out money for real estate projects must be made easy so that banks wouldn’t shy away from real estate investments.

“In 2020, if the government concentrates on the provision of infrastructure, we will find a rapid recovery. It is still the private sector that would help in the provision of adequate housing. There is a need for infrastructure to be improved upon by the government to bring down the cost of housing provision for the people. So that developers will not have to transfer the cost of provision of infrastructure on the people. Also, the element of compensation must be dealt with because many housing projects didn’t take off in 2019 due to the fact that the natives claim that they were not compensated,” he said.

Essentially, the President, Association of Town Planning Consultants of Nigeria (TOPCON), Niyi Odetoye said the development in the property market has been badly affected by the economy generally. He said the high-end sector was mostly affected because that segment was mostly hit by the economic recession.

“The property market was mostly affected because developers concentrated on high-end housing. If we have been doing a lot of social housing and providing homes for the middle-level income earners, the challenges posed by the economy won't have affected the sector.

“If you actually conduct a survey, you will discover that a lot of people who are into housing are trying to rejig their business development plan by providing housing for those in the middle-income category. Those are the ones that could easily access mortgage and that tells us that there is still opportunities for those housings that fall within N10million to N25million.”

For 2020, he said there would still be a lull in the provision of housing for the high-end segment, however, there would be a boost for those in middle-income, hence the focus for developers/investors in 2020 should be how to catch the market for the provision of housing for the middle-income earners.

source: Victor Gbonegun

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The President of the Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN), Rev Ugochukwu Chime has...

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Nigeria’s first and biggest independent real estate network marketing firm, Adloyalty...

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The Ogun State Government says it will soon begin to revive some of its major old towns by giving...

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Stakeholders in the real estate industry have said Nigeria can solve its housing deficit challenge...

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The President of the Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN), Rev Ugochukwu Chime has...

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 Residents seek intervention over alleged land conversionHopes of subscribers in the...

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Dubai Government initiatives, including the formation of a new real estate committee to regulate...

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The Chief Executive Officer of Cielo City Estate, Mr. Damilola Ogunyemi, has said Nigeria’s...

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Stakeholders have commenced a process to address the problem of data collation that has been a...

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The National Assembly has written to the Nigeria Institute of Building, expressing its concern over...

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Nura DanMusa is a certified architect from the Eastern Mediterranean University (EMU) Cyprus, and...

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According to the provision of section 4 (1) (e) of the FCT Act, the FCDA is charged with the...

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Except for the Federal Government and private developers focus more on the production of homes for...

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REMI MAKINDE is a former president of the Nigerian Institute of Town Planners(NITP). He spoke to...

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The Presidency has said the sale of over 1,094 housing units completed by the Ministry of Works and...

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A past president of the Africa Union of Architects, Tokunbo Omisore, says with the increase in...

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Emerging Homeland Development Limited, developers of Silver Spring Residence, has said the Ibeju...

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  The Lagos State Governor, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has said his administration...

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Lagos State Government has collaborated with Architects Registration Council (ARCON) by raising a...

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Kano state government has expressed readiness to key into the National Housing Scheme to...

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he Refined Investor Series 2020 promises to provide actionable insights for Real Estate Investors...

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Better days are ahead for property developers and investors as residential vacancy rate has...

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The complex is designed to reduce paperwork in most official dealings as all offices will be able...

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Worried by the alarming rate of Nigeria’s housing deficit, a property investment...

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Lagos State Commissioner for Physical Planning and Urban Development, Dr. Idris Salako (left)...

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The Minister of Works and Housing, Mr. Babatunde Fashola,  said the ministry would soon...

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President, International Real Estate Federation, FIBACI-Nigeria, Adeniji Adele (Left), FIBACI...

a year ago Read More

Despite the critical role of shelter to human survival, availability of housing units for a...

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ELENA PANARITIS is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Thought Action and guest speaker at...

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The shelter is recognised as a basic human right, however, due to the high cost of building...

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FESADEB Communications Limited, a leading brand in the Nigerian housing and Public Relations...

a year ago Read More

Worried about possible exclusion from completed Federal Government Housing schemes, contributors...

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Abandoned to fate by successive governments, the ancient city of Badagry has been bereft of any...

a year ago Read More

Charters Cities Institute, a non-profit organization dedicated to building the ecosystem for new...

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Despite the lull in the property market, a new report says the country’s real estate...

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Eggheads in the nation’s real estate sector have predicted a marginal growth in the sector...

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The United Kingdom housing market may bounce back in 2020, now that there is less uncertainty...

a year ago Read More

Northcourt Real Estate will host the Nigeria Real Estate Market Outlook Breakfast meeting and...

a year ago Read More

With the accelerated development-taking place on the Lekki corridor, investors and developers...

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House sales in major cities in the United States are expected to nosedive in 2020, thereby...

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The Federal Government has been urged to keep off from direct construction of housing and...

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The Society for Professional Valuation, (SPV) has called on Nigeria’s anti-corruption...

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Experts in real estate business have called for concerted efforts aimed at attracting Nigerians in...

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Nigeria’s luxury real estate market has taken a beating lately due to several fundamentals,...

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Real Estate experts have canvassed the need for government to put in place policy that would compel...

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The Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria processed and disbursed a total of N75.5bn for 3,541 mortgages...

a year ago Read More

The Chairman, Board of Trustee of the Society for Professional Valuation, Mr Sola Enitan,has said...

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Frank Okosun is the Senior Partner and Chief Executive Officer of Knight Frank Nigeria. In this...

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At a time when macroeconomic and political forces are aggravating the challenges of affordable...

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The hope of total recovery for Nigerian real estate in 2020 might not be in sight, as industry...

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Commercial banks’ credit to the real estate sector dropped by N122bn in the last one year,...

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Experts in the real estate industry have revealed that the next frontier that would redefine the...

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Experts have charged the managers of housing corporations and developers in the real estate sector...

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India is a country that houses more than 460 million internet users, making it the second-largest...

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The real estate industry’s potential to create jobs and boost economic growth has not been...

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As the momentum for housing delivery by private estate developers shifts away from the luxury...

2 years ago Read More

Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Housing, Mr Wasiu Adedamola Akewusola (left); Special Adviser to...

2 years ago Read More

The built environment has been fraught with challenges of collapse, quackery, substandard...

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Despite the reprieve promised by the Lagos government to property owners, professional groups and...

2 years ago Read More

Chairman, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Nigeria Group, Gbenga Ismail (left);...

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real Estate experts have canvassed the need for government to put in place policy that would compel...

2 years ago Read More

Many Nigerians are obsessed with Houses which is a reasonable thing as shelter is one of most...

2 years ago Read More

The business mogul said this at the 2019 Mo Ibrahim Forum. Dangote hinted that he avoids luxury...

2 years ago Read More

Whether it’s shuttered, polished or even replica, concrete has become the favourite...

2 years ago Read More

The most important thing that can boost access to homeownership and help Nigeria to bridge its...

2 years ago Read More

n the real estate investing business, real estate investors need to be familiar with the term...

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The Minister of Works and Housing, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, on Wednesday said the ministry would soon...

2 years ago Read More

To boost home ownership, experts in the real estate sector have called for holistic implementation...

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Small businesses and real estate investors are discovering that the new business landscape demands...

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Three years after the authorities finalised plans to embark on the redevelopment of Adeniji Adele,...

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To make Nigeria’s real estate sector more investable, and increase liquidity to drive greater...

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Except there is a reorientation on locations, design and foundation methodology in flood prone...

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The Lagos State Government has cautioned real estate developers in the state not to build without...

2 years ago Read More

The Lagos and Ogun state governments are in talks to control water released from the Oyan Dam which...

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A joint development commission that will foster a strong economic relationship between the Federal...

2 years ago Read More

A joint development commission that will foster a strong economic relationship between the Federal...

2 years ago Read More

Have you ever considered furnished apartments as a viable option during your search for an...

2 years ago Read More

Despite a rebound in some sectors of the economy, the property market has remained slow in...

2 years ago Read More

Landlords don’t just collect rent checks. Successful landlords must understand the law,...

2 years ago Read More

Landlords don’t just collect rent checks. Successful landlords must understand the law,...

2 years ago Read More

Ms. Leilana Fartha, UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Adequate Housing, on Monday advised the...

2 years ago Read More

The Nigeria’s luxury real estate market has taken a beating lately due to several...

2 years ago Read More

With the near completion of Dangote Refinery and projects like multi billion Alaro city , Sea port...

2 years ago Read More

After three years of house price falls, Nigeria’s property market is now stabilizing, mainly...

2 years ago Read More

CAPE metropolis – The modern global real estate and Transparency Index (GRETI) has shown an...

2 years ago Read More

In the beginning look, this seems like a terrible plane crash! but it seems this web page became no...

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Kylie Jenner these days grew to become 19 years vintage in a $50M condominium property, known as...

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The annual West African property investment (WAPI) Summit, the area’s most distinguished and...

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The Federal mortgage bank of Nigeria says it has invested over N197 billion to deliver over 26000...

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The housing market is on fire! Jonathan Smoke, our leader economist, describes it as the...

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